Framework

Model Intercomparison: The core of BES-SIM 2

The BES-SIM 2 framework employs a model intercomparison approach to ensure robust and reliable projections of biodiversity and ecosystem service changes. By integrating outputs from multiple models, BES-SIM 2 provides a comprehensive analysis of how biodiversity drivers impact nature under plausible future scenarios. This approach identifies areas of agreement across models and highlights uncertainties, fostering collaboration among modelling communities and driving methodological advancements.

Advancing with the Nature Futures Framework

BES-SIM 2 adopts the Nature Futures Framework to envision positive futures for biodiversity by integrating diverse societal values. This approach focuses on pathways that promote sustainability and equity, incorporating perspectives prioritising nature’s intrinsic value, nature benefits to people, and cultural connections, aligning with global conservation goals.

Incorporating Multi-Scale Modelling

BES-SIM 2 emphasises multi-scale modelling to link global trends with regional and local dynamics, allowing the development of context-specific scenarios that address regional biodiversity pressures and conservation priorities, enhancing the applicability of findings across socio-ecological contexts.

Integrating Social-Ecological Feedbacks

BES-SIM 2 integrates social-ecological feedbacks to capture dynamic interactions between biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human systems. This allows the framework to model how biodiversity changes influence human well-being and policy decisions, and how societal actions, in turn, shape ecosystems, addressing the interconnected challenges of conservation and sustainable development.

Integrating Terrestrial, Freshwater, and Marine Domains

BES-SIM 2 combines terrestrial, freshwater, and marine ecosystems into a unified modelling framework to capture the complex interactions and interdependencies between ecosystems, such as land-sea nutrient flows and habitat connectivity.

Alignment with Global Goals

BES-SIM 2 aligns with international biodiversity strategies, including the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework and the UN Sustainable Development Goals. By addressing uncertainties, integrating diverse values, and providing multi-scale insights, it offers a transformative framework to guide global and local conservation efforts for a sustainable and equitable future.

The first iteration of BES-SIM provided groundbreaking insights into global biodiversity loss by modelling the impacts of major drivers, including land-use and climate change, using Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Focused on global-scale assessments, it employed multiple biodiversity and ecosystem service models to identify trends, uncertainties, and areas of agreement, using key metrics like species richness, extinction risk, and habitat integrity. While the framework informed policy and highlighted urgent conservation needs, its limitations included a lack of socio-ecological feedbacks, minimal regional specificity, and a narrow focus on direct drivers, paving the way for the more inclusive and dynamic BES-SIM 2 framework.

Visit IPBES website to learn more about BES-SIM 1. The BES-SIM protocol can be found at https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-4537-2018.